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How did you go bankrupt? Two ways, gradually, then suddenly.”
-Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Well here we are, not even a month into Trump 2.0, and the initial results are dizzyingly stupefying. But why should anyone be surprised? Many were conned into electing a man over his promises to fix the economy, but are faced with a narcissist who is intent on nothing less than undermining all the principles of the Constitution and recreating the country in his image.
Although it is too early to tell how all of this will turn out eventually, there are clear winners and losers in the early going. Here are just a few.
Winner: Technocrats. Trump has surrounded himself with a team of tech bros that amounts to an amalgamation of rivals the likes of which we haven’t been seen since the first Lincoln Cabinet. But how long can Elon Musk’s lust for power survive when he starts to grab more headlines than his new BFF?
Loser: Government Services. Let’s face it, most don’t care about foreign aid, which, despite common belief, amounts to less than 1% of the federal budget. But what happens when Musk’s evisceration of U.S.A.I.D. is over and he turns his attention to things that really matter to Americans, such as Social Security and Medicare. Think it can’t happen? Just ask the many former employees of Twitter.
Winner: Corruption. Bye, bye, FCPA. Enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which prohibits companies from bribing their way to business in foreign countries has been put on hiatus because of Trump’s view that it inhibits those who are conducting business “legitimately, legally or otherwise.” I am pretty sure what that “otherwise” means.
Loser: Once again, the American consumer, who will be forced to pay higher prices for goods when bribery becomes another cost of doing business.
Winner: Russia. Trump thinks he will win the Nobel Peace Prize by ending the war in Ukraine on terms that will make Putin smile.
Loser: Allies. Only a bully beats up his friends. While NATO, the most successful defense alliance in history teeters, Trump threatens Canada and Denmark.
Winner: Fascism. While Musk gives a modified Nazi salute, Vice President JD Vance condemns the “barricade” against the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the upcoming elections.
Loser: Liberal Democracy. Countries led by strongmen are held up as ideals. If Mussolini were alive today, he would be feted by the White House. We may have to settle for Victor Orban.
Winner: Polio. Vaccines will come under heightened scrutiny under HHS Secretary RFK Jr. While he denies being an anti-vaxxer, ask the people of Samoa where dozens died after he spread his vaccine lies.
Loser: World health. Withdrawing from the WHO may sound strong and defiant, but where will we get the data we need to prepare for the next pandemic?
Winner: Rule of Law. 1,600 persons who denied a legitimate election result and assaulted Capitol police officers go free and are declared heroes while federal prosecutors and FBI agents lose their jobs. Clearly, black has become white.
Loser: Justice. NYC Mayor Eric Adams will likely go scot-free from bribery and political corruption charges after promising to assist Trump in deporting immigrants while a federal prosecutor with bona fide conservative credentials resigns out of principle in opposition.
Winner: Fossil fuels. While “climate change” is scrubbed from any mention on agency websites, hurricanes, wildfires and floods ravage the world. Meanwhile China is becoming the world leader in alternative energy.
Loser: The Earth. The clock for saving our planet is ticking.
Winner: Inequality. The war against DEI is just code for: Make America White Again. If competence is the governing principle, why do we have Pete Hegseth?
Loser: The American People. While DEI programs have had certain excesses, when properly run, they ensure that the playing field is leveled and women and persons of color are allowed to prove their merits.
Winner: Cronyism. We now have a Cabinet of loyal incompetents and the ultimate goal is to have a federal government solely beholden to one man.
Loser: The Senate. The Constitutional mandate of “advice and consent” has morphed into merely “consent” as Republican Senators cave from fear of primary challenges and physical threats if they don’t approve appointments that pose genuine risks to the country.
There will certainly be more clear winners and losers if this President gets his way. While many feel that the judiciary will save the country against the Administration’s worst excesses, that is no sure bet given the conservative supermajority in the Supreme Court and possible defiance of legitimate orders. Meanwhile, there is little indication that there is much “buyer’s remorse” among those who voted for Trump mostly on the economy. For those who believed he wouldn’t do all he promised in the campaign, think again. He is doing that and more.
